This year is the 10th anniversary of the "Belt and Road" initiative, according to the report released by the China International Contractors Association, in 2023, the "Belt and Road" national infrastructure development index will further rebound, and the top 10 countries in the joint construction of national infrastructure have basically contributed to the increase in China's steel exports. Therefore, in the case that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended and China still has a cost advantage, the substitution effect of China's steel exports is likely to continue. The follow-up will focus on the changes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including the resumption of production of local steel mills, mining recovery, reconstruction activities, etc.; Changes in coking coal price spreads at home and abroad; Turkish lira and changes in electricity prices; The sustainability of demand increment in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other countries; Will China's steel imports increase after the recovery of the European economy?